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Battleground 2006 Poll
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Battleground 2004 - Week 7 tracking
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Overview of Nader Voters
Battleground 2004 - Week 5 tracking
Battleground 2004 - Week 4 tracking
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Battleground August 2004
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Battleground Week 4 Tracker
October 10, 2004

WASHINGTON -The George Washington University Battleground 2004 Tracking Poll, completed prior to the second presidential debate on Friday night, shows President Bush with a slight lead on Sen. Kerry in the race for the presidency. The aided presidential ballot stands at 49% for Bush and 46% for Kerry. This survey finds fully 82% of likely voters continue to have made a "definite" choice for president. President Bush continues to enjoy a slight advantage over these highly intense supporters - 43% of likely voters are definitely voting for Bush and 39% of likely voters are definitely voting for Kerry.

On voter views about the presidential candidates, 53% of likely voters have a favorable view of President Bush and 45% have an unfavorable view of him. Regarding Sen. Kerry, 51% of likely voters have a favorable view of him and 44% of likely voters have an unfavorable view of him.

On the handling of key issues, voters believe that Bush would do a better job safeguarding America from a terrorist threat (57%-36%), dealing with Iraq (53%-41%), and keeping America prosperous (48%-44%). Voters believe Kerry would do better at creating jobs (51%-41%).

On personal qualities, voters believe that Bush better represents the qualities of a strong leader (54%-39%), shares your values (50%-43%), and leading America in the right direction (49%-45%).

On key issues, the top concerns of voters continue to be the war in Iraq/terrorism (40%) and the economy/health care (27%). The generic Congressional ballot has moved back to a statistical tie with the Democrats holding a one-point edge (43%-42%).

Voters continue to be concerned about the direction of the country - 53% say the country is on the wrong track and 40% say the country is headed in the right direction.

"There is no question that the impact of the debate more than erased the growth of support for George W. Bush seen in the third week of the GW-Battleground Poll," Republican pollster Ed Goeas said. "As the impact of the debate settled down, so did the President's numbers, and by week's end most measurements moved back in his direction and reflected the strategic edge seen in the first week's GW-Battleground tracking. The real question is whether the last week was just a speed bump or whether this race will tighten further."

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said, "Facing an increased Bush lead heading into last week's debate, Kerry's strong performance and widely acknowledged win has moved this race back to a dead heat. The deteriorating situation in Iraq combined with further evidence undermining the justification for war and the disappointing job numbers bode poorly for the President."

This bipartisan GW-Battleground 2004 poll surveyed 1,000 registered, likely voters nationwide October 3-7, 2004 and yields a margin of error of + 3.1%. -more- -2- This nationally recognized series of scientific surveys is unique to the industry, in that it offers the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle. The George Washington University is the sponsor of the Battleground Poll, a highly regarded, bi-partisan election survey conducted by top polling firm Lake Snell Perry and Associates and The Tarrance Group. GW's role in the Battleground Polls is guided by the University's Graduate School of Political Management. The University was also recently recognized as the "Hottest School for Political Junkies" in the 2005 Kaplan/Newsweek How to Get Into College guide for the second time in three years.

For more information about the poll, please contact Daniel Gotoff at Lake Snell Perry & Associates at (202) 776-9066 or e-mail Daniel at


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