May 2008 GW Battleground Poll Released
May 22, 2008

Lake Research Partners Congratulates Donna Edwards on Her Democratic Primary Victory
February 13, 2008

Congress Should Do More to Help the World's Children
October 11, 2007

July 2007 GW Battleground Poll Released
July 26, 2007

LRP Congratulates Chicago Alderman-Elect Sandi Jackson
March 1, 2007

LRP on the Role of the Economy in the 2006 Elections:
A Post-Election Analysis
November 30, 2006

LRP's Post-Election 2006 Analysis Slide Presentation
November 24, 2006

Women in the 2006 Elections
November 13, 2006

Medicare Part D Insights
November, 2006

Health Care in the 2006 Elections
November, 2006

Lake Research Partners Make Big Contribution To Progressive Wins
November 8, 2006

LRP on the Role of the Economy in the 2006 Election
October 30, 2006

New GW Battleground Poll Released
October 5, 2006

Health Care One Year After Hurricane Katrina
August 8, 2006

Landmark Study Tracks Vulnerable Californians Adapting to Medicare Part D
June, 2006

Lake Research Partners Congratulates Georgia's Competitive Democratic Primary Candidates
July 25, 2006

Lake Research Partners Congratulates Democratic Primary Winners
June 8, 2006

Poverty Poll Released
March 8, 2006

GO TO NEWS ARCHIVE

GW-BATTLEGROUND 2008 POLL RELEASED

January 17, 2007

On key issues, the war in Iraq is clearly the dominant issue for voters and the one they expect Congress to deal with. Also, a plurality of the likely electorate (43%) believes the message of the recent Congressional elections was to send a message about changing the course in Iraq.

Voters are divided in their solution on how to change the course in Iraq—21 percent would increase the number of troops in Iraq; 32 percent would keep forces stable until the military leaders feel the situation is stable; 28 percent would set a deadline of leaving Iraq within one year; and 16 percent would withdraw the troops immediately. Likely voters are similarly divided about whether the war was worth it – 46% say it was worth it and 48% it was not worth it.

The Democratic Party has certainly made some gains from recent events with a majority of likely voters holding a favorable impression of the Democrats in Congress and the Democrats enjoying an issue handling advantage outside the margin of error on seven of the twelve issues tested.

However, this voter goodwill for the Democrats has certainly not solidified. On trial 2008 ballots, Sen. John McCain leads both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama by ten points. Similarly, Rudy Giuliani leads both Clinton and Obama by double digits. Looking at the image of their Congressional leaders, a majority of likely voters do not have an image of Sen. Harry Reid and more than one-third of likely voters do not have an image of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Looking over this data, Republican pollster Ed Goeas writes, “The Republican Party now is like a badly beaten down stock – but a stock that is a good buy for the future. The Party’s base is still strong and it has returned to the basic principles and products that made it a strong stock in the first place.”

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake has this analysis: “Voters are intensely dissatisfied with the course in which the country is headed as well as the man charged with setting that course. As such, the opportunity – and need – for Democrats to continue to define their brand of leadership has never been greater.”

Christopher Arterton, dean of GW’s Graduate School of Political Management, noted, “Two months after the elections, voters maintain their hopes that the Democratic Party will turn the course on most major issues, especially the war in Iraq. However, looking forward to the 2008 presidential elections, Republicans have an advantage at this early stage. Democrats will need to answer the voter’s call for change and prove that they are worthy of recapturing the White House.”

This bipartisan GW-Battleground Poll 2008 surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide Jan. 8-11, 2007, and yields a margin of error of + 3.1 percent.

First conducted in 1991, this year marks the poll's 15th anniversary. It has accurately portrayed the political climate through four Presidential and three mid-term election cycles. The GW-Battleground Poll continues to be an in-depth bipartisan look at the political climate and a leader in setting the standards for polling.

This nationally recognized series of scientific surveys is unique to the industry, in that it offers the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle. The George Washington University is the sponsor of the GW-Battleground Poll, a highly regarded, bi-partisan election survey conducted by top polling firms Lake Research Partners' and The Tarrance Group.

The University's role in the poll is guided by its Graduate School of Political Management. GW's public affairs, public policy, and international affairs programs (undergraduate and graduate) are frequently ranked highly in leading publications, including recognition among the Top 10 "Most Politically Active" colleges and universities in the 2005 Princeton Review and as the "Hottest School for Political Junkies," according 2005 Kaplan/Newsweek How to Get Into College guide. The George Washington University also is one of the nation's best schools in fostering social responsibility and public service, according to the Princeton Review and Washington Monthly, which both included the University among its top-rated schools for community service in 2005.

For more information about the poll, please contact Daniel Gotoff at Lake Research Partners at (202) 776-9066 or e-mail Daniel at dgotoff@Lakeresearch.com.

The GW-Battleground Poll archives since 1991 are at GW’s Gelman Library, www.gwu.edu/gelman.
For more news about GW, visit the GW News Center at www.gwnewscenter.org.

LRP Analysis

Tarrance Group Analysis

Questionnaire

Charts and Graphs

15 Years of the Battleground Poll